In response to:

Don’t Trust Economists, Part II

Timgabz Wrote: Jan 28, 2013 3:52 AM
I have been fairly accurate on predictions, however there is the precision that just doesn't happen. Throw in the official stats so adjusted that would have Pinocchio blushing and it is a fiction tht means economists have to get in on the ground to be closely meaningfull or they they are just blowing smoke. I work in the development (construction) industry and for decades we could plot our risk sucessfully for some 2 years ahead. Now I don't believe the figures can push past the quarterly basis, except for one reality is that we are in trouble and it is getting worse.
traitorbill Wrote: Jan 28, 2013 11:33 AM
You mean a trillion dollar coin wont save us?! What's next, taxing "millionaires and billionaires" more "fairly" wont save us?! More government spending wont save us?! Say it aint so, Barry!

Back in 2010, I shared a remarkable graph comparing the predictions of economists to what actually happened.

Not surprisingly, the two lines don’t exactly overlap, which explains the old joke that economists have correctly predicted nine of the last five recessions.

It’s not that economists are totally useless. It’s just that they don’t do a very good job when they venture into the filed of macroeconomics, as

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