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Analysis: Four More Years

tdarby Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 2:24 PM
Hello everyone! I was the guy posting the odds this whole election season. Turns out they were wrong- the Dems did even better than was expected. I said I'd show up today so here I am. I'll leave you guys alone starting tomorrow. But know this: you can't just make stuff up and expect enough people to believe you to win an election.
Networker Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 2:27 PM
Exactly. Facts, truth and reality matters. You can't just say something over and over and wish it comes true.

A few stray thoughts and observations in the aftermath of the 2012 election -- on substance, process, and tactics:

(1) The polls were broadly right, both at the state and national levels -- a dichotomy that I believed to be unlikely in the extreme as recently as yesterday morning.  The electorate ended up being D+6, nearly on par with 2008, and six points better than the 2010 midterms.  I was wrong about this, as were a good number of other observers.  The 2012 party ID figures from Gallup and Rasmussen upon which my assumptions were based were...

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