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Ohio, Florida, Colorado Tidbits

stillmisstpaw Wrote: Nov 06, 2012 6:50 PM
If the exit polls only look "kinda bad," I'd say that's a good sign. As I said -- and as others far smarter than me have said -- the exit polls will look awful. Not only was 2004 a Kerry blowout; 2008 was a 20-point Obama win, which the networks more or less randomly "adjusted" to 8. In 2010 the exit polls looked terrible at first, and when we won the House the response of many conservatives was, "How could I have been so dumb? The exit polls have looked terrible before, and they fooled me before." And, of course, in the WI recall this year, the exit polls initially indicated a dead heat.
stillmisstpaw Wrote: Nov 06, 2012 6:52 PM
correction: second sentence should read "As I have previously said." (Not that I'm remotely an expert on this stuff. I'm not!)

Second correction: should have said above that the networks "adjusted" Obama's so-called 20-point lead in the exit polls to 11. I need to learn to type.
stillmisstpaw Wrote: Nov 06, 2012 6:51 PM
correction: second sentence should read "As I have previously said." (Not that I'm remotely an expert on this stuff. I'm not!)

(1) It's looking like the Ohio polls overstated the state's early vote, which consistently favored Obama in the data.  This could be bad news for Obama:
 

The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it...

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