In response to:

Lies, Darned Lies, and Polls

RMan3 Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 9:10 AM
My gut feeling (and I hope I'm right) is that this feels a lot like 1980 and 1994 - when the media and pollsters missed a strong undertow of disgust with the party in power. Also in both years, they failed to account for the very strong enthusiasm of Republican voters who were willing to walk through fire to vote. Also, every poll shows Romney winning independents by large margins. That's a huge danger sign for Obama. Well, two more days, and we'll see who's right.

How accurate are the polls? Is there one gold standard out there? Are they all biased and skewed tools of partisan media?

For my money, the most reliable polling data is the Real Clear Politics polling average.

In 2008, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted Barack Obama to defeat John McCain by 7.6 points. Obama won by 7.3 points. In 2004, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted George W. Bush to defeat John Kerry by 1.5 points. Bush won the election by 1.5 points.

That’s called nailing it.

Worth noting is which...