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Polls and Predictive Fallibility

requiescat in pace Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 10:30 PM
“One of the most interesting things about this race is that while it’s close, most voters expect Obama to win,” says UConn poll director Jennifer Necci Dineen, a faculty member in the university’s Department of Public Policy. Fifty-two percent say Obama will win, while just 27 percent are confident that Romney will prevail. That perception can actually shape turnout, Dineen says. “That’s the X factor for Obama right now,” she says. “If Democrats can convince voters that Obama’s re-election is inevitable, Republicans who are less enthusiastic about Romney are more likely to stay home on Election Day.”
Dan_NV Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 10:34 PM
Ooh, Ooh, projection. Yes, we all believe you, I mean, who would doubt, Jennifer Necci Dineen?
ValerieParneau Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 10:35 PM
People who whine about media bias and have no ideas of their own? That's who would doubt her.

Hint, hint.
Petrus64 Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 11:16 PM
People with no common sense are counted upon to make it all believable.

How's the street corner? I
ValerieParneau Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 11:20 PM
Your mother is doing fine.
Petrus64 Wrote: Oct 01, 2012 12:33 AM
She's been gone for 13 years. Pretty sure that's you on the corner I was asking about.

Maybe you could offer Chris Mathews some advice? He spends a lot of time on his knees sucking up.

It's demoralizing, day after day, to hear the MSM crowing about some poll that is supposedly declaring the election all-but-decided in favor of Barack Obama.  What's more, it's frankly hard to believe: The economy is tanking (with the unemployment rate expected to have gone up again in September), the Mideast is on fire, and a majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.  Yet voters are salivating to go out and pull the lever for Barack Obama and get more of the same?  Really?

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