In response to:

Introducing The New Polling Firm of Madoff, Marist, Quinnipiac and Ponzi

ReddestNeck Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 9:08 PM
Intrade, pfui. That's probably the "best" investment a Democrat PAC could make. Potent psy-op towards all who believe that unicorns drop Skittles. Sensible voters are less likely to be fooled, so the GOP does not attempt to buy favorable ratings on Intrade.
bmitchell82 Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 7:57 AM
Intrade is a joke. Question, what odds did Intrade give Ryan on being the VP pick a month before he was chosen? Close to zero I believe. Intrade had it as a lock the Supreme Court would overturn Obamacare.

The thing you need to understand about Intrade is that people are not betting on the actual outcome, they are betting on the public perception at that moment. So basically Intrade goes up and down with the latest poll - expecting that the next sucker who comes along will also believe that poll.

Intrade is amusing but it's predictive value is zero.
Paulus Textor Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 9:44 PM
Well, seeing as they forecast the 2008 election almost to the exact electoral vote, I would take them seriously. In like manner, so did electoral-vote.com. But, if you wish to go on thinking that such accurate forecasts constitute belief in unicorns dropping skittles, enjoy.
ReddestNeck Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 10:29 PM
At what time, the same day as the polls? If they were "accurate" in the way you depict them, they would never have fluctuated the way they did. All we see now on Intrade is Kabuki theater.
Larry in Texas Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 10:38 PM
The country was so screwed up by 2008 by the previous FIVE administrations (except Reagan's) stealing more and more money and spending like jackasses that a sack of fertilizer with a Democrat's button on it would have won. Unfortunately, the ignorant, mentally challenged and entitled elected the most radical, anti-American president in our nation's history.
We may not recover, but I will remain as optimistic as I can.
ReddestNeck Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 10:43 PM
George W. Bush was particularly modest about the Republican brand, which might have been theoretically a civic virtue, but in practice it invited a disaster. The Democrats of today are not our fathers' Democrats, and do not have a lick of sense left. All they have is scheming and cunning to sell whatever illusions they can, then they're outta here before the smoke and mirrors fall to the ground.
bmitchell82 Wrote: Sep 30, 2012 7:59 AM
Intrade is accurate if you look at the final prediction 30 seconds before the actual outcome. If you look at Intrade 30 days out it has no predictive value whatsoever.

After a few weeks spent tracking down and questioning pollsters and the reporters of polls, I can assure the reader that pollsters are the modern-day alchemists. They promise to turn numbers into predictive gold. We'd all like to believe these magical powers exist, but we shouldn't. The pollsters of 2012 just don't know who is going to win in November any more than did the pollsters of 1980 know that Ronald Reagan was headed towards a landslide in that late-breaking year.

I'd like to believe Scott Rasmussen that the race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama is tied. Democrats...