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Analysis: Four More Years

Real_American_Dave Wrote: Nov 08, 2012 12:46 PM
Dichotomy? I guess there is a "dichotomy" between 100% accurate (Nate Silver) and 100% wrong (every Republican).

A few stray thoughts and observations in the aftermath of the 2012 election -- on substance, process, and tactics:

(1) The polls were broadly right, both at the state and national levels -- a dichotomy that I believed to be unlikely in the extreme as recently as yesterday morning.  The electorate ended up being D+6, nearly on par with 2008, and six points better than the 2010 midterms.  I was wrong about this, as were a good number of other observers.  The 2012 party ID figures from Gallup and Rasmussen upon which my assumptions were based were...

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