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Reginald10 Wrote: Apr 28, 2012 3:53 PM
SPAM. Cross-posted and off-topic.
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The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.2%, down from 3.0% in the previous quarter, and below most mainstream media estimates of 2.5%.
However, my friend BC notes ....
The GDP deflator is reported to have averaged 1.2% annualized in the past 2 qtrs. Had the trend rate from '11 persisted, the deflator would have subtracted 2.6% annualized from real GDP, resulting in a 2-qtr. growth of real GDP of 0%.
ECRI's Achuthan would appear correct that a recession were imminent instead of looking like a dummy.
Rick Davis at the Consumer Metric Institutes makes a similar calculation.
In their "advanced"...
GDP Miss Far Bigger Than Announced; Real GDP is 0% Using More Reasonable Deflator