The Next Big Crisis: State Bankruptcies

None1945 Wrote: Jun 23, 2010 8:42 AM

A few things to note: 1. States have sovereign immunity. They don't need bankruptcy. A state can default on its debt obligations or on the terms of a union agreement and, if they won't waive sovereign immunity, there's nothing anyone can do about it. 2. Local governments and school boards aren't so lucky. 3. If the Democrats maintain control of the government they will nationalize pensions. They need to do this in 2011 or 2012. For political reasons they may continue to provide emergency stopgap funding in 2011 and 2012, then act in 2013 assuming Obama gets a second term. 4. The federal government will offer a "voluntary" program in which they assume the assets and liabilities of state and local pensions, and probably private sector...

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

The Current Recession versus the Great Depression

None1945 Wrote: Sep 14, 2009 6:31 PM

These comparisons are nice talking points, but are largely meaningless.

As to point 1, we're still early in the game, so don't hold your breath.

As to point 2, I don't believe the Feds maintained separate U6 and U3 rates of unemployment. The U6 rate is now approaching 20%, and many economists are predicting it will top out around 25%.

As to point 3, equities did not lose 89% of their value in one fell swoop during the depression. Instead, there was a W-shaped decline, with the second downward leg being much deeper than the first. The last time I saw a chart comparing equity indexes from the great depression to the current recession they look eerily similar. We'll see if we have a second downdraft.

As to...

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Listening to a Liar

None1945 Wrote: Sep 08, 2009 10:08 AM

I disagree with just about everything Obama has done, but I do applaud Obama for his efforts to circumvent the Advise and Consent of the Senate through the generous use of policy Czars. Congress has leveraged the Advise and Consent clause to grossly overextend its reach into the workings of the Executive branch. The Senate's various oblique rules have further exacerbated the problem; it is now common for a single Senator to block appointments due only to a personal grudge.

To understand the scale of the problem, here is the Wikipedia listing of appointments which require Senate confirmation:

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Why Import Workers Now?

None1945 Wrote: Dec 08, 2009 10:26 AM

The answer to Pat's question is easy. America needs to continue importing high-skilled workers, particularly high-tech workers, because native-born Americans lack the skill set to do these jobs.

If you doubt this statement visit any engineering college and look at the number of foreigners its student body. Then review the composition of the graduate student body. The graduate students are overwhelmingly foreign-born--frequently 90% or more.

It has been this way for decades. When I was in graduate school in engineering in the 1980s I was one of two American citizens in the department, and this was in the Midwest.

The high tech sector needs these immigrants. America's lead in the high-tech sector is eroding...

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Crisis of the Government Party

None1945 Wrote: Jan 29, 2010 1:32 AM

Every day I think more and more about emigrating. I'm thinking about Australia, Singapore, Thailand, or possibly even somewhere in Europe. I don't see much of a future in the U.S. for the next 5-15 years.

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Obamanomics Isn't Producing Jobs! Gosh, How Can This Be?

None1945 Wrote: Dec 06, 2009 10:10 AM

Official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data has "adjusted" U3 unemployment at 10% and U6 at 17%. Shadowstats reports "unadjusted" U6 unemployment is at 23%.

A triple threat virtually guarantees that U6 unemployment will reach 30% or more. First is demographics. A baby boomlet is entering the labor force. Second is retirement delay. Older workers whose 401k accounts have diminished are delaying retirement. And finally, Obama's socialist tax and regulatory policies have killed the job market. Obama's Depression is just getting started.

Within one year we will see the real U6 unemployment rate exceed 25%. The federal government will implement a depression-era jobs program in 2011, if not in 2010.

We...

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Appointments Are the President's Prerogative

None1945 Wrote: Mar 07, 2010 8:43 AM

This column reads like an essay for a high school civic class. A syndicated column is not the place to have a debate between the voices in your head. If you can't form a coherent opinion, then you ought not to write an opinion column.

As Ms. Thatcher would say, this is no time to go all wobbly, Debra. The public has a right to know the background of public servants. The attorneys have no right to anonymity. The Obama administration and the attorneys are both fair game for criticism.

The attorneys knew this would be controversial when they sought out the opportunity to represent AQ clients. If they can't stand the heat they should have stayed out of the kitchen.

Was that so hard?

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Obamacare Is Dead and Here’s Why

None1945 Wrote: Jan 26, 2010 9:52 AM

Levy may have the politics correct, but the constitutional analysis is pure wishful thinking. This is not a serious analysis.

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

Uncertain Trumpet

None1945 Wrote: Dec 04, 2009 11:43 AM

OBL is certainly a despicable terrorist, but with the benefit of hindsight afforded by the eight years that have elapsed since 9/11/2001 one has to admit that OBL's plan is working far better than he ever could have hoped.

Eight years after 9/11 America now finds itself effectively bankrupt and entrenched in two foreign wars from which it cannot readily extricate itself. The Republicans are long gone from power and we are now governed by a Congress dominated by Democrats who are, at their core, socialists and have a President whose political and economic philosophy could best be characterized as Italian Fascist in the style of Mussolini. The official U3 unemployment rate is 10%, the official U6 rate is at 17.5%, but the real...

Share it! | Permalink

In response to:

The Kindness of Big Business: A Story

None1945 Wrote: Dec 04, 2009 8:41 AM

And by the way, DG, much corporate philanthropy at big corporations is paid for with the unspent money from employees' pre-tax "use it or lose it" flexible spending accounts. Many large corporations use those leftover monies as a source of funds for charitable giving. In that respect they are just like the government. It's easy to be charitable with other peoples' money.

There is no compelling reason to require FSA accounts to be forfeited at the end of the year. This little scam just works too well for all the powerbrokers: corporations get good PR and charities get more donations. Meanwhile workers get the shaft, forfeiting their hard-earned dollars for no compelling reason.

Ben, why don't you write a column about this?

Share it! | Permalink

1 - 10 Next