After a few weeks spent tracking down and questioning pollsters and the reporters of polls, I can assure the reader that pollsters are the modern-day alchemists. They promise to turn numbers into predictive gold. We'd all like to believe these magical powers exist, but we shouldn't. The pollsters of 2012 just don't know who is going to win in November any more than did the pollsters of 1980 know that Ronald Reagan was headed towards a landslide in that late-breaking year.
All intelligent and impressive, but I am old enough to recall the dire predictions for Reagan, well supported by the published polls. Figures don't lie, but liars figure. Go to Huffpost to see the thinking of the posters there. Often wrong, but never in doubt.
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