In response to:

A New Prediction for the Electoral Map (and the All-Important Contest for Porn Star Endorsements)

NewAgeOfReason Wrote: Aug 07, 2012 2:11 AM
It would be interesting to see what the D/R/I sampling is for those polls. From what I have seen, to get Obama a +9 on the polls required a D+19 sampling size. Even in 2008 there wasn't D+19 turnout.

Two months ago, I predicted that Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral votes, 27 more than needed.

Last month, I shifted Virginia to Romney’s column and predicted Obama would still win, but with 284 votes.

Today, with just three months to go, I’m guessing the election will be even closer. In my latest electoral map, I’m moving Colorado from the lean-Obama category to the lean-Romney category. This leaves Obama with a lead of just 275-263 in the electoral college.

Now let me preemptively deal with some complaints and criticisms.

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