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Nate Silver’s Model vs. “The Morris Law”

nerin Wrote: Oct 27, 2012 10:09 AM
Their model has predicted exactly 0 elections, since it is a new model. What they appear to have done was create a model and tweaked it until it positively "predicted" (correlated with) all elections since 1980. Whether or not it actually works has yet to be determined, but I have some serious doubts.

Nate Silver has pumped vast quantities of polls, surveys, and other data into his election model. Dick Morris has one theory and a gut feel for the race. The two election prognosticators could not be farther apart in their methodology or their projected outcomes. Silver predicts a close, but very likely victory for President Obama. Morris projects a win for Romney that exceeds Republicans’ wildest expectations.

Silver’s model has been very successful in its short lifespan. It includes poll data, economic data such as the stock market and unemployment numbers, and demographic information.

Recently, conservatives have been angered...