In response to:

Lies, Darned Lies, and Polls

Neal from PA Wrote: Nov 03, 2012 12:38 PM
Forget the polls; my gut and common sense are telling me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda that history says, “always fails”. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
Jim69 Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 8:03 PM
WOW! Talk about being wrong! You should have your own blog on this site.
Jim69 Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 8:03 PM
WOW! Talk about being wrong! You should have your own blog on this site.
Neal from PA Wrote: Nov 03, 2012 12:39 PM

I am not a big believer in polls; especially in our current environment, because they are so skewed by various things. First, my common sense and my gut are telling me… Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. You can add to that those that were going to vote for McCain but didn’t vote at all (like my wife), but will this time around.

But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about their and their kids’ futures. Voters know Obama now and that is bad news for Obama. Second, many of those that supported and voted for Obama in 2008 just cannot bring themselves to admit making a mistake.

How accurate are the polls? Is there one gold standard out there? Are they all biased and skewed tools of partisan media?

For my money, the most reliable polling data is the Real Clear Politics polling average.

In 2008, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted Barack Obama to defeat John McCain by 7.6 points. Obama won by 7.3 points. In 2004, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted George W. Bush to defeat John Kerry by 1.5 points. Bush won the election by 1.5 points.

That’s called nailing it.

Worth noting is which...