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Pollsters May Have Fatal Flaw in Obama Romney Numbers

Moonbat Exterminator Wrote: Jul 26, 2012 12:21 PM

Barry's big weakness in this election will be turnout. He's likely to contiue to pull 90% of the black vote and large amjorities among single women and young voters, but none of these groups will have the same enthusiasm they did last time. This is particularly true for young voters, who left their dorms to vote for Barry in droves, but most of them have or are about to graduate with few job prospects on the horizon. Many of them will stay in mom's basement rather than go to the polls.

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Pollsters May Have Fatal Flaw in Obama Romney Numbers

As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively, it dawned on me, looking at the various "swing state" surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead, when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.

When surveys are conducted, the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be "weighted" or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other...

Related Tags: Campaigns and Elections 2012 Election Mitt Romney Obama Barack Obama Polls