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Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

moderateGuy Wrote: Oct 31, 2012 2:10 PM

The turnout in 2008, which Demos are unlikely to exceed, was 44D/37R/18I; plug in those numbers to the poll data - https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct12_1.pdf and Romney is ahead by half a point; the turnout in 2010 was 40D/37R/23I; when you plug in those numbers Romney is ahead by almost 4%. (he wins 15% of D, 81% of R and 48% of I, Bam-bam is 79,12,32) The turnout this year is likely to be somewhere in between '08 and '10, say 42D/38R/20I.

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PurpleStateBlueVote Wrote: Oct 31, 2012 2:38 PM

Yes yes, and EVERY poll of Pennsylvania is WRONG. What could ALL those pollsters be thinking? Crazy.

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jparker Wrote: Oct 31, 2012 3:24 PM

They're thinking "We really want Obama to win, so we'll poll twice as many Democrats as came out to vote for him last time, in hopes that we can skew our numbers."

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Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

Behold, Franklin and Marshall's new poll of Pennsylvania:

Before we get to the internals, notice the basic trend line. This month, Mitt Romney broke into the mid-40s, while Obama dropped back into in the upper 40s. Remember a political rule of thumb: An incumbent with universal name recognition who is polling below 50 percent is typically seen as vulnerable. Now, a slightly deeper dive. Mitt Romney leads independents by 16 points in this poll, 48/32, with 10 percent undecided. If the Republican ticket looks well-positioned to...