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Pollsters May Have Fatal Flaw in Obama Romney Numbers

Michael2450 Wrote: Sep 06, 2012 9:03 PM
The polls are plus 6 to plus 10 democrat...most of them. Rasmussen is plus 2 democrat. The electorate actually self identifies as plus 2 republican according to rasmussen. Romney leads by 5 or 6 in my opinion. Another key Obama got 52% of catholic vote in 2008. His approval among catholics is 27%. That by itself should to take care of Obama.
As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively, it dawned on me, looking at the various "swing state" surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead, when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.

When surveys are conducted, the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be "weighted" or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other...