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Betting Markets Predicting Obama Victory

micah17 Wrote: Nov 06, 2012 2:20 PM

Intrade also predicted a 73.6% chance that Obamacare will be struck down, ruled unconstitutional. We know that was wrong. They are group think which is reactionary and not predictive. http://www.policymic.com/articles/10377/obamacare-predictions-intrade-predicts-health-care-law-odds-at-supreme-court We might as well call it for Romney according to the "Redskins Rule" O_o http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?Aid=2012121104024

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bassist33 Wrote: Nov 06, 2012 4:40 PM

To help you out a bit there, the Affordable Care Act ruling came down to a last minute decision change by a Supreme Court judge. That's where that other 26% went and why it wasn't 100% that it would be struck down. There's always a chance. It's a bit different when talking about the entire electorate. the number of people needed to move Ohio and at least three or four other swing states is rather large. That's not to say that it's impossible. but that's why the likelihood is on the side of Obama.

Statistics for the win. Knowledge is power!

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Betting Markets Predicting Obama Victory

Betting markets accepting public bets on the presidential election today have coalesced around a narrative: President Obama has a good chance of retaining the Oval Office.

The Intrade market has President Obama with (as of this writing) a 72.5% chance of winning the election - and the number being that high is largely a result of predictions being made today. President Obama is up over four points in the market today alone after having hovered in the 60% range for most of the race.