In response to:

Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

LongRifle Wrote: Oct 31, 2012 7:15 PM
And the biggest polling companies that live by their reputation have already started to show the trend for Romney. if they weren't at least close on the election finals they would not have a shred of integrity left to sell themselves with. They live and die by their reputation. So watch as Romney pulls farther away in the next week. I am hoping that it will be as I suspect and Romney will win with at least 54% of the vote. I am afraid that if he doesn't beat Obama by at least 6 or 7%, the riots will be out of control. It would be hard to argue that the Repubs stole the vote with a loss margin greater than 5% though. Hijacking 6 million or more votes would be a really hard argument to sell.

Behold, Franklin and Marshall's new poll of Pennsylvania:
 


Before we get to the internals, notice the basic trend line.  This month, Mitt Romney broke into the mid-40s, while Obama dropped back into in the upper 40s.  Remember a political rule of thumb: An incumbent with universal name recognition who is polling below 50 percent is typically seen as vulnerable. Now, a slightly deeper dive.  Mitt Romney leads independents by 16 points in this poll, 48/32, with 10 percent undecided.  If the Republican ticket looks well-positioned to...