In response to:

To Government, Every Penny Is Sacred

Len196 Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 4:35 PM
I admire your ignorance in economics. Outsourcing is the result of minimum wages and many other reasons like high union wages and benefits. When you outprice yourself by unreasonable demands for me to pay for your production I will buy whatever is made overseas. And no US businessman is obligated to provide YOU with good paying manufacturing jobs and benefits. And if you say that raising prices stipulate the demsnds you are wrong. It the demsnds by various unions workers and manufacturing workers that force others to raise prices. And at some point it becomes unprofitable to manufacture in US.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 11:21 PM
You misunderstad. I don't suggest that trade is immune from government interference in free markets resulting in economic damage. I'm arguing exactly the opposite. It is the governmental interference with free trade that is economically harmful, reduces economic efficiencies and results in the loss of employment. A classic example is the Bush steel tariffs designed to save jobs in the steel industry. The end result was that many more jobs were lost in industries that use finished steel than were ever "saved".
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 9:47 PM
If we moved jobs because of competitive forces I would not object. I personally lived through real world events where we put ten's of thousands of Americans out of good paying work contributing real people I worked with into lesser paying jobs and/or unemployment, simply because of gov policies which made such an outcome inevitable. ... I was against but understand it would have been financial irresponsibility for our corporation to do otherwise. What my corporation did we were not alone. The business economy is a complex inter-relationship of many forces, including immigration, trade, education, culture, etc. Gov interfering with free markets has caused much of this. How can anyone suggest trade somehow is immune of such consequence?
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 9:21 PM
That the government has created unemployment is true, but, again, that has nothing whatever to do with free trade. And, yes, you have hit the nail on the head. The acceleration of factories closing in the US and reopening in other countries has no relation to rising unemployment except inasmuch as free trade has prevented unemployment from getting even HIGHER. It is no less the case than that the shift from an aggricultural economy to an industrial one (vastly reducing the number of jobs in aggriculture) was a cause for a rise in overall unemployment (that likewise didn't happen.

Remember the greatest period of "outsourcing" was the 1990s when unemployment was historically low.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 9:17 PM
I'm not attempting to insult you. I'm an economist and I am simply referencing the empirical data and the knowledge that has been gained. And my first words (on anorther thread) were neither more nor less than that you were incorrect and needed to do more research and on this thread that you were pursuing a bad idea (protectionism - the alternative to free trade).

No knowledgeable person can acknowledge that ON A NET BASIS "real jobs of real Americans have been sacrificed to free trade" because it flatly is not so. That jobs have been eliminated in some industries/areas while MORE have been created in other industries/areas due to free trade is true - but that is the nature of the competitive market.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 9:12 PM
You are operating from a false premise. That, as with every other factor of production, your company chose to purchase labor at the lowest price just as labor suppliers seek the highest price is how the market works. That is not the same thing as "transfering jobs" anywhere any more than closing a factory in state A and openning one in state B does. In a normal market, those labor resources still exist and are allocated elsewhere and, again, free trade results in more and higher paying jobs in THIS country. The effect of free trade is empirically beneficial resulting in a net increase in jobs and labor compensation.
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 9:03 PM
Surely you've heard of such real cause effect relations to American jobs does occur, and has occurred before. Aerospace industries rose and fell during our space race and collapsed the decade that followed. The acceleration of our factories closing in the US and reopening in other countries has no relation to rising unemployment!???? Really?????
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 8:59 PM
You seem knowledgeable, and I enjoy the discussion to the point where knowledgeable people simply resort to insulting those who disagree (your very first words). I'd be satisfied to simply get a knowledgeable opponent to acknowledge that real jobs of real Americans have been sacrificed to free trade, and these ex-computer professionals have moved to lesser standard of living in the wake ... just as most factory workers that have likewise been forced into service. The causes were completely created by gov't (there was no intrinsic comparative advantage to where the jobs went). Unemployment CREATED by gov policy is a travesty.
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 8:47 PM
Your reliance on decrying "fact" is simply not factual. 30 years retiring as an officer of one of the largest corporations in our country, we pursued policies which could not transfer jobs out of our nation as fast as we'd have liked ... there are practical limitations. The "comparative advantage" where we moved those jobs were completely manufactured by the stroke of Gov't pen (legislation in the US not applicable to where we moved those jobs). It wouldn't have been to our advantage to do so were it not for free trade, and these were very real jobs lost to Americans, and not merely limited to low paying factory positions. Check out decreasing US computer science enrollment, mainly due to outsourcing degreed jobs to China and India.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 7:56 PM
Consider: If, as you suggest, we were importing more value than we are exporting then we would, by definition, be gaining wealth (imports) at the expense of little green pieces of cotton paper that are WORTHLESS unless ultimately traded for real value here. You are looking at the equation as if only producers are of value. But everyone is also a consumer and, taken to its logical conclusion, you are arguing that the US economy would be harmed if every other country in the world simply showered everyone in the US with gifts.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 7:53 PM
The surveys show that the agreement on the minimum wage hovers between 76% and 88% depending upon how the question is phrased. That the minimum wage results in disemployment effects (destroys jobs) is almost universally accepted except in cases when the minimum is set below the market wage. There is a small group who believe that there are benefits that offset the disemployment effects but they are by far in the minority.

There IS no "lost employment" in the aggregate from free trade. I'm sorry, but that is simply fact, not theory, not speculation, not a suggestion.

That we have high unemployment due to government intervention has NOTHING to do with trade policy.
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 7:41 PM
I've read that economists agree on minimum wage (being bad) by no more than 3::2. Yet that leaves a third as supporters (obviously the administration only puts stock in that group). Those that support it mostly ignore the impact on unemployment (from those I've studied). Those that explain comparative advantage likewise simply ignore the impact on lost employment. How can anyone deny an employment connection where we have such high unemployment while all those jobs creating what we import used to employ Americans? I suggested my own observation in my first post that economists divide along lines of what maximizes collective world output vs those take US impact into consideration. But insulting opponents simply lowers discussion.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 7:10 PM
When I use the term "discredited", I refer specifically to proofs of factual inaccuracy. There ARE no mercatilist economists anymore because it is obvious and, again, all but universally accepted that hoarding gold does not guarantee economic success and that comparative advantage is proved a billion-fold. Chang's data has been shown to be factually wrong in much the same way that Card & Krueger's claims about benign minimum wage laws have been.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 7:07 PM
Again, a nation CANNOT buy more goods than it produces in the long term. Ultimately, all that can be exchanged is value for value. The "trade deficit" is an accounting fiction - in precisely the same way that you have a "trade deficit" with the local grocery store (the family scale you suggested). Ultimately, the values balance out. If we import more from China but they buy more capital goods from us (that don't appear in the "trade deficit" or exchange through countless countries with different trade balances the result is the same.

IT IS ECONOMICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR WEALTH TO BE REDUCED BY FREE TRADE.

Government intervention is always harmful - including as a protectionist.
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 6:52 PM
when you remark of groups of economists as being "discredited" I strongly object. Reminds me of Keynesians dismissing anyone who espouses "Austrian school" as discredited. Discredited according to who? Whenever anyone resorts to "all experts agree with me", what they really mean is "all experts that agree with me agree", circular logic meaning nothing. Haven't we heard enough of such nonsense in global warming?
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 6:40 PM
When a nation buy's more goods than it produces some call that a trade deficit. But each trade is balanced in goods and payment. So if we import more goods than we sell to China, our largest export, of numerically equal value, is our wealth (more leaves than returns). Put on a family scale, the nation spends more in goods than we earn selling what we produce. Less obvious but a trajectory towards bankruptcy just the same.

I'll stand corrected on Batra's politics. There were always concluding chapters of his theories I simply dismissed as looney. But the numeric analysis portions were never political and numbers are numbers.

Our gov't adjusts markets every day in the name of fairness, but not trade.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 6:26 PM
It is also clear that you are cherry-picking economists that support your viewpoint - this is why I suggested you check out the American Economic Association surveys of its membership. Batra is flatly not taken seriously in the economic profession. he was even awarded the "Ig Nobel" prize for economics (a parody awarded to well-published crackpots). I mention Chang because he is the most published nutbar on the "horrors" of free trade. His debunked nonsense gets the greatest following in the US.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 6:22 PM
It is economically impossible for "trade deficits" (actually current account deficits OFFSET by long-term capital account SURPLUSES) to bankrupt anyone. It is logically impossible for trade (which takes place only when mutually beneficial to the parties involved) to magically become harmful when aggregated.

The process is called comparative advantage; it's not a theory and it's not disputable. Our nation was, in fact, most successful when tariffs have been least (primarily the late 19th century) and tarfiffs helped extend the Great Depression.

Batra's overtly socialist by his own admission (as Chang favorably cites Marx). Hamilton was a mercantilist whose theories were completely debunked by Adam Smith.
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 6:15 PM
Trade deficits will bankrupt a nation just like budget deficits (dollars are dollars). One cannot simply accept trade imbalance as justifiable on principle without remedy. Our nation had fairly consistent import tariffs from it's inception up until the time of GATT. The inflection of job mobility (towards US shores vs away from US shores) changed direction in 1974 from study of actual labor data.

I read economists on both sides. I've never called those I disagree with socialists or Marxists. I try to understand how they disagree and why. If you don't like Batra's "The Myth of Free Trade" there are many. I don't know the politics of most. I don't think Alexander Hamilton was a socialist.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 5:55 PM
BTW, the tiny handful of economic laughingstocks including socialist and Occupy Movement supporter Ravi Batra (who was no hero of Reagan's) and neo-Marxist Ha Joon Chang do not represent any significant group of economists.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 5:45 PM
doc, look up the ACTUAL DATA at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists are NOT, by any stretch of the imagination, divided on the topic of free trade. It and the harmful effects of the minimum wage are among the topics all but universally accepted in economics - and if you exclude economists funded by unions such as at the Economic (sic) policy institute, it's pretty much unanimous (check AEA syrveys). And, again, the data on outsourcing is factual, not theory.

That the US drives up costs is certainly true, but the ONLY solution is to address THAT issue - adding protectionist tariffs are ALWAYS harmful to the economy under every circumstance.
doc, aka Rich Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 5:39 PM
You are both ignorant AND intolerant, as your opening comment is to insult. It is not acceptable to presume everyone you disagree with is ignorant. Economists are divided on free trade as it relates to outsourcing between those who consider world collective vs those who prioritize impact to the US. Try reading Ravi Batra, whom I'd heard was Ronald Reagan's favorite economist.

Too deep to delve into, but at least consider that the US inflates the cost of goods manufactured within the US (FICA, workmens comp, osha, overtime, minimum wage, etc) but will not charge a compensating import duty for lower cost to manufacture where these same US regulations do not apply. The US gov't creates the financial incentive that drives all relocation.
FletchforFreedom Wrote: Feb 20, 2013 5:12 PM
Good response but one comment - if you mean outsourcing including to other states here in the US, you are correct in every particular. Unionization has driven jobs from union states to non-union states actually creating more jobs and avoiding some automation (to the benefit of consumers who get more competitive products). It is also true that minimum wage laws drive some low skill jobs out of the US but free trade also provides more jobs in the US that pay higher than the legal minimum.

doc's problem is that he would heap another bad decision (protectionism) on top of bad decision (minimum wage laws/unionization).

President Obama has new priorities. That means new spending.

In his State of the Union, he said, "The American people don't expect government to solve every problem." But then he went on to list how, under his guidance, government will solve a thousand problems, including some (like climate change and a loss of manufacturing jobs) that are probably not even problems.

The president bragged about creating "our first manufacturing innovation institute" in Ohio and says that he will create 15 more. Politicians claim actions like this are needed to solve the "decline of manufacturing" in America. John McCain, Mike...

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