In response to:

Nate Silver's Numbers Racket

kmccoy Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 12:37 AM
Umm ... I think Jonah should have waited before posting this article. Wishing something true does not make it true. Nate's numbers have been dead on in 2008 and 2012.

In the last week or so, an intense kerfuffle broke out over the poll-prognosticator Nate Silver and his blog at the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight. Silver, a statistician, has been predicting a decisive Obama victory for a very long time, based on his very complicated statistical model, which very, very few of his fans or detractors understand.

On any given day, Silver might have announced that -- given the new polling data -- "the model" was now finding that the president had an 86.3 percent chance of winning. Not 86.4 percent, you fools. Not 86.1 percent, you Philistines. But 86.3 percent,...