In response to:

Lies, Darned Lies, and Polls

Ken5061 Wrote: Nov 03, 2012 11:14 AM
I cannot give Real Clear Politics credit just for getting the right answer. Remember Dan Rather who thought that would work. Tell me this. Does RCP poll a representative sample and avoid leading questions. Polls work if they are statistically valid and the questions, and the pollsters, do not lead the person to the right answer. We know that many/most of these polls are not legitemate polls and should not be called polls, however, one of these guys is going to win and one of these polls is going to come closest to predicting it. But that does not impress me favorably.

How accurate are the polls? Is there one gold standard out there? Are they all biased and skewed tools of partisan media?

For my money, the most reliable polling data is the Real Clear Politics polling average.

In 2008, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted Barack Obama to defeat John McCain by 7.6 points. Obama won by 7.3 points. In 2004, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted George W. Bush to defeat John Kerry by 1.5 points. Bush won the election by 1.5 points.

That’s called nailing it.

Worth noting is which...