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Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

Kati in PA Wrote: Nov 01, 2012 12:22 PM
I've been living in PA for about 9 years, and there's a certainly been a shift. While Philly is, and will remain, Democrat, there is much more Republican support in the suburbs. You see far more Romney stickers and signs than you did signs for McCain in the last election. Even around my alma mater, people who may have kept quiet four years ago are now comfortable voicing their opinions. One former classmate of mine has changed from being an Obama volunteer to a Romney fundraiser. There's no guarentee of victory, but it's going to be a much closer race than PA usually sees.

Behold, Franklin and Marshall's new poll of Pennsylvania:
 


Before we get to the internals, notice the basic trend line.  This month, Mitt Romney broke into the mid-40s, while Obama dropped back into in the upper 40s.  Remember a political rule of thumb: An incumbent with universal name recognition who is polling below 50 percent is typically seen as vulnerable. Now, a slightly deeper dive.  Mitt Romney leads independents by 16 points in this poll, 48/32, with 10 percent undecided.  If the Republican ticket looks well-positioned to...