In response to:

The Particulars of Polls

John3807 Wrote: Oct 01, 2012 10:22 PM
The only poll that matters is the one on November 6th.
Carl265 Wrote: Oct 01, 2012 10:51 PM
Correct. This really messes with the talking/writing heads.
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters.

First, some points about the limits of polls. Random sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent, and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot such an...