In response to:

Lies, Darned Lies, and Polls

jkash1776 Wrote: Nov 03, 2012 7:29 AM
Given how we have never had a media who were OPENLY campaigning for the incumbent (and that is including 2008) and never had so many not responding to polls, this is again a false narrative. Cell phones, ipads, the web have never been such factors. This is a very skewed narrative not taking into account so much that has changed the face of elections. If you are unwilling to look at OBVIOUS crowd differences and liberal newspapers touting for Romney, you more or less destroy your credibility, establishing that you are an ostrich with your head in the sand who must have down in that sand only polls to serve as your basis for reality.

How accurate are the polls? Is there one gold standard out there? Are they all biased and skewed tools of partisan media?

For my money, the most reliable polling data is the Real Clear Politics polling average.

In 2008, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted Barack Obama to defeat John McCain by 7.6 points. Obama won by 7.3 points. In 2004, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted George W. Bush to defeat John Kerry by 1.5 points. Bush won the election by 1.5 points.

That’s called nailing it.

Worth noting is which...