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Analysis: Four More Years

Jim Oakland Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 8:44 PM
Obama got more of the youth vote, Hispanic, Black, and women vote. These facts may explain this somewhat: Who's having abortions (age)? 52% of women obtaining abortions in the U.S. are younger than 25: Women aged 20-24 obtain 32% of all abortions; Teenagers obtain 20% and girls under 15 account for 1.2%. Who's having abortions (race)? While white women obtain 60% of all abortions, their abortion rate is well below that of minority women. Black women are more than 3 times as likely as white women to have an abortion, and Hispanic women are roughly 2 times as likely.

A few stray thoughts and observations in the aftermath of the 2012 election -- on substance, process, and tactics:

(1) The polls were broadly right, both at the state and national levels -- a dichotomy that I believed to be unlikely in the extreme as recently as yesterday morning.  The electorate ended up being D+6, nearly on par with 2008, and six points better than the 2010 midterms.  I was wrong about this, as were a good number of other observers.  The 2012 party ID figures from Gallup and Rasmussen upon which my assumptions were based were...

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