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The Folly of Forecasting

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President Obama's mostly forgotten jobs package would reportedly create 1.9 million new jobs, a one-percentage-point drop in the unemployment rate, and goose GDP by two percentage points. That was the prediction of Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. You see, he has a model. He did a simulation, and presto — 1.9 million jobs!

Zandi practices what one of my undergraduate economics professors told our class: "Predict often. That way, when you occasionally get lucky, you can take credit for it."

But the Moody's man is on a cold streak. Zandi has predicted the bottom of the housing market every...