In response to:

Rove: Romney's Going to Win

Jay520 Wrote: Nov 01, 2012 1:32 PM
I don't know if there an "intensity of dislike for the imcumbent" catagory, but a lot of people dislike Obama intensly. Does that mean anything?
amackley Wrote: Nov 01, 2012 2:24 PM
This is a good point.
Romney's Likeability (a positive motivator for voters) is higher than Obama's by about 2 points. But that indicates whether someone is motivated to vote FOR a candidate.

However a Dislikeablity (a negative motivator) would indicate someone who would be motivated to get out and vote for the competitor. Even more important, when someone votes against a candidate, they are actually moving the vote count by two.

Simply not voting shifts the balance by 1. Voting against a candidate shifts the balance by 2.

In a 47 to 48 race, not voting would tie the race. (47 to 47). Voting against would cause the competitor to win (48 to 47).

Many 2008 Obama voters are voting against Obama, each shifting the balance by 2.
QuasiFrodo Wrote: Nov 01, 2012 1:40 PM
It means that they are more likely to show up and vote. It also means that they are probably very very stupid.
Summers Wrote: Nov 01, 2012 1:35 PM
To put a finer point to it, Jay, they really dislike what Obama has done and is planning to do intensely. After Benghazi, I have to say, the dislike has become more personal.

In his final pre-election Wall Street Journal column, Karl Rove makes some fearless predictions about what we'll see next Tuesday night.  As you browse through his thoughts, bear in mind that he didn't earn his "architect" moniker by accident.  On the current polls:

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney. He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19,...

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