The bad news? Pew's partisan split is R+1 (R+3 among likelies), which seems a few shades too optimistic for the GOP. The good news? The media suddenly cares about partisan breakdowns in public opinion surveys. After weeks of mocking conservatives as tinfoil-hat-wearing paranoiacs for wondering if polls with D+8 samples were all that predictive in the 2012 cycle, every member of the Beltway smart set -- from NBC to WaPo -- is eager to share an opinion about the likelihood of a partisan over-samples. The difference? Back then, it made Obama look stronger than he actually was. Totally...
This will be close until the October job numbers and the Sept. revision of the numbers come out right before the election....that will determine who wins.....
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