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I want to make a correction to the following sentence: "...Bubbles are more about expanding monies, interest rates and so forth." Correction - Bubbles reflect factors and elements that are not made up of only expanding monies, tinkering with interest rates and so forth; there could be additional conditions that had and currently have an adverse effect.
Real Estate Appraisers saw the housing bubble forming in the late 1990's. From then on we all warned Politicians and the media, but nothing we said was taken serious and nothing was done. A media outlet in NY refused to print why the bubble is happening (and, that there was in fact a bubble), because they said it would cause global economic crisis (in years 2002/2003). This is one example how values worked for a good decade: mortgage broker requests an appraisal, provides target estimate, the Real Estate Appraiser who says the market doesn't support the value they want is blacklisted, the broker shops until they find the Appraiser who will manipulate value. The blacklisted Appraiser is now on the every broker's blacklist in the area, including banking institutions and will never receive work again. This is just one example. Did the Government have a hand in manipulating value? Yes! Value, as of today is being manipulated and no one will listen. A bubble is forming right now and could be just as big, or bigger than the one we experienced in the late 2010's. Government manipulated Appraiser Independence. Bubbles are more about expanding monies, interest rates and so forth. Below is a Web Site that began in the year 2000, but the petition originally started in the late 1990's. Interesting read, but no one decided to listen until it blew up. I know details of how the bubble happened and much more. With regard to the math; value is based on socio-economic behavior. http://www.appraiserspetition.com/
Minimum Wages of any set amount - whether it is 50 Cents or 15$ - dictates how much a person will receive; it is a predetermined amount for Human Capital (labor, etc.). It is a mockery of Freedom, Property Rights and Capitalism. Once a rule dictates my pay, my worth, my incentive I have lost a little bit of Freedom, a chance at realizing Property Rights' full potential and the American Dream (whatever that may be on an individual basis) and, it works against Capitalism. When a rule can pre determine a value on an individuals basis from crazy theories that any one can pull out the air so a round peg can fit into a square hole, then when my child one day looks itself in the mirror, I hope they can negotiate their own worth instead of a pieces of paper called a Government Law. Ask any person dead set on Minimum Wage Laws if they would be happy about a Real Estate Appraiser pre-determining the value of their Real Estate. Depending on their answer, they should be taught that they are giving themselves up to a pre-determination of their worth/value, not their Real Estate, which ended up crashing the Economic System. Many people received some high values during that time, but their asset was never really worth that much. The same thing can happen directly to Wall Street, instead of indirectly as it has been used during our Great Recessions and Great Depression - that would suck - if the Minimum Wage Law one day crashed our Economic System. If a person can truly look at itself and actually think that pre determined values on any Human Capital, or Physical Capital is a good thing, then they must have the Holy Grail to Utopia! Privatize the Wage! A matter fact, Privatize the Economy! The Minimum Wage activists will eventually get to 15$ a hour quicker and easier if they sat down and had a decent observation of what Greed really is. They can have a great Health Plan that fits them like a glove at a great price. Maybe they just want to punish people; maybe it isn't about a wage at all..
"...As usual, people are not looking clearly at Obamacare. It is unconstitutional. That's the story." ~ Blue Bonnette I think Obama Care grinds at the core of Individualism and Freedoms while instituting a Socialist system into an individual's health. It hurts the culture and merit of the U.S. It is a depressant. It hasn't been implemented fully. It is obvious, there is some volatility. Obama Care most likely has a broad effect on behavior. Changing the Culture and depressing the Merit of Americans on a large scale does have the ability to create volatility.
High interest rates are not exactly a bad thing. Maybe to the financial world it is a big thing, just like their discount points were important. Sometimes, a sacrifice may better than the damage done by unattainable greed. I guess we cannot exactly have high rates without the other, as of today, per se. But, if the rates were localized instead of centralized--the Real Estate Market is immovable--people have to come to Real Estate and, so does interest rates. Interest rates, from an immovable view point act "challenged." One element moves and the other element sits still in a very unique geographic position. Interest rates can either beat ya over the head, or the rates can be friendly with timing issues. And, OH LORD, what about value vs. risk? Appraiser Independence is still at an infancy stage; the interest rates can help, but it can't be abused and expect it come down again properly.
Basic safety nets for financing is great to live by, but It is all much deeper than three legs being relevant to financing. The Property Economics of it was enslaved. Nobody in the media wants to report that actual Economic Slavery was on the ticket. There is a reason why we have "Appraiser Independence." Financially speaking, I can lend 100% all day so long as the asset is Economically healthy and, projected to be healthy over a certain number of years. Independent Real Estate Appraisers factually knew what was coming to this country, economically, and when it was coming; a projection (principle of anticipation) is something the lending industry was never concerned with. If the assets did not pop, virtually all at once, then the assets should had been given the time to correct itself with the appropriate financing. Those portfolio's having true and real Value Analysis came out well, besides the external obsolescence they obviously had to deal with. Banks didn't forget, they purposely joined hands to enslave the market.
The NAR cannot be trusted. When Appraiser Independence knocked Realtors out of the Appraisal Process, along with MB/LOs, this should had given a clue to all that the NAR cannot be trusted according to the General Public. But, of course, there is so much more (I have told a lot on these chats in the past). The run up happened longer than 2001 thru 2007 - the article is factually wrong. The median income and prices are within an aggregate (that doesn't work in Real Estate) - median income and prices do not provide an efficient analysis, as well. I see quite a few holes in this article; however, the media is no stranger when it comes to innocent ignorance and, purposely distorting the overall truth about value (mostly the Liberal Media). Affordability and the negative causes are more complex than what the article portrays.
I live in Grant Parish, Louisiana. Many Northerners like to say it is the Deep South, because we are highly Conservative. I think it is a stereotype they use to their advantage, especially when our whole state went Conservative. Louisiana is filled with Culture. People who cannot read and write here are more up to date than these people who were interviewed in "New York." I know someone who cannot read and write, but he can rebuild a engine, and he can debate me in politics (I am a Real Estate Appraiser).This reporter can come to Grant Parish, LA, and the reporter can find people [easily] who can 'show these people interviewed up' by at minimum 50%. It is amazing how many people are highly ignorant, or low info. individuals.
In response to:

The Crucifixion of Jason Richwine

greenback Wrote: May 11, 2013 12:26 AM
I do not fully understand; because, I have probably posted four or five times in all in the comment section here on TH. I have never had any problems, but I found out in order to read each and every comment in a single thread, such as this one, a member must be signed in to simply read the additional comments. I am not a technician, and I am just a common member that likes to read articles and, comments sometimes. Too many Liberals lurking to comment often; all they have time for is attacking people, trying to force people to think like them and obviously being creepy by following others like a rapist would their prey (sort of like the IRS is doing at Obama's command). I am sorry that I cannot be of any help. Keep trying to figure it out, you'll get the right answer sooner or later.
In response to:

The Crucifixion of Jason Richwine

greenback Wrote: May 10, 2013 10:14 PM
I have a question that is Off Topic. Are you a Real Estate Appraiser? I am asking, because your name implies it. Just curious, is all. And, if you are an Appraiser, what would this immigration reform do to the market, in your opinion? For the record, I am a Real Estate Appraiser. And, do you think they have put in much thought regarding the effects it may have on Real Estate, as well as, would this immigration reform cover up anything members of Congress would like to over up regarding Real Estate? People like to talk of cover ups, but no one really likes to talk about the cover ups in Reaal Estate, including right wing media and, even the greatest people and decent people in this country.
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