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New Jobless Claims: Outliers, Volatility, Incompetence and Incentives

Ginger12 Wrote: Nov 18, 2012 7:19 AM
California hid their numbers until after the election...you know when all of a sudden with the addition of only 14,000 jobs from the month before, the employment numbers went from 8.3 to 7.8....they call it "cooking the books". Now, in the first two weeks after the election with the closing of Hostess thanks to the unions who want the whole company, by my meager calculations, we have lost at least over 28,000 jobs. Get ready, this is just the beginning....if you have a job, better try to keep it...things are not good out there and on 12-31-12, the extended unemployment benefits runs out....hello, out there....elections have consequences....you got took in 2008 and again in 2012 by the snake oil salesman.

The United States would appear to have entered a new trend for new jobless claims, one characterized by outliers and volatility. Our chart below showing the residual distribution of the number of new jobless claims filed each week shows just how far off from normal things have become since 22 September 2012, which we're marking as the end of the previous trend.

In fact, the data is so volatile right now that we're not able to accurately determine what the real trend in new jobless claims might be. For that, we'll need anywhere from six...

Related Tags: incompetence jobless
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