In response to:

Nate Silver's Numbers Racket

farduini Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 1:01 AM
Can't help but note that assuming Obama's lead in Florida holds up, Nate Silver's electoral college predictions were 100% correct, while the other model you mention (the U of Colorado) did worse than even Morris. So yes, "They couldn't all be right.." Just Nate Silver.

In the last week or so, an intense kerfuffle broke out over the poll-prognosticator Nate Silver and his blog at the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight. Silver, a statistician, has been predicting a decisive Obama victory for a very long time, based on his very complicated statistical model, which very, very few of his fans or detractors understand.

On any given day, Silver might have announced that -- given the new polling data -- "the model" was now finding that the president had an 86.3 percent chance of winning. Not 86.4 percent, you fools. Not 86.1 percent, you Philistines. But 86.3 percent,...