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Nate Silver’s Model vs. “The Morris Law”

Egon3 Wrote: Oct 27, 2012 11:14 AM
On Nov 7th yo will be hearing the word "unexpected" on a regular basis from most "experts". D. Morris will be vindicated as the greatest prognosticator. Most of the polls give anywhere from 5% to 9% advantage to Dems, expecting a turnout mirroring 2008 or close. In reality this election will bring a veritable conservative tsunami and surpass that of 2010. Romney will win at least 52%-53% of the popular vote and at least 348 electoral votes.
ReddestNeck Wrote: Oct 27, 2012 3:19 PM
Yes, it would be very easy for the shoe to be on the other foot versus 2008. Mitt will be where Barack was, and Barack will be where John (McCain) was.

Part of the polling problem is that it's still seen as politically incorrect to let it be known you'd not give the black Obama more mulligans than a white president would get. Democrats try to jam the debate by calling such a sensible non-affirmative-action attitude "racism."

Nate Silver has pumped vast quantities of polls, surveys, and other data into his election model. Dick Morris has one theory and a gut feel for the race. The two election prognosticators could not be farther apart in their methodology or their projected outcomes. Silver predicts a close, but very likely victory for President Obama. Morris projects a win for Romney that exceeds Republicans’ wildest expectations.

Silver’s model has been very successful in its short lifespan. It includes poll data, economic data such as the stock market and unemployment numbers, and demographic information.

Recently, conservatives have been angered...