The big winner in all of this? Nate Silver. He was right on the money. The big losers in all this? The conservative pundits. Morris, Rove, Barone and a whole slew of others (see mirror) let their emotions and wishful thinking take precedent over everything. You should have seen this coming. All you had to do was look at the numbers and the way the gambling markets were playing. Or just do what I do. See what Morris thinks and then take the opposing view. The guy is amazing. He is never, and I mean never, right.
In the last week or so, an intense kerfuffle broke out over the poll-prognosticator Nate Silver and his blog at the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight. Silver, a statistician, has been predicting a decisive Obama victory for a very long time, based on his very complicated statistical model, which very, very few of his fans or detractors understand.
On any given day, Silver might have announced that -- given the new polling data -- "the model" was now finding that the president had an 86.3 percent chance of winning. Not 86.4 percent, you fools. Not 86.1 percent, you Philistines. But 86.3 percent,...
How could such a large group be so uniformly mistaken? That's not a rhetorical question. What mechanism led to an almost 100% failure rate? Unless conservatives can figure that out, they will never win another presidential election.
And they are still doing it. I've been watching Fox all morning, and all...