In response to:

Nate Silver's Numbers Racket

DoctorRoy Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 12:11 PM
The big winner in all of this? Nate Silver. He was right on the money. The big losers in all this? The conservative pundits. Morris, Rove, Barone and a whole slew of others (see mirror) let their emotions and wishful thinking take precedent over everything. You should have seen this coming. All you had to do was look at the numbers and the way the gambling markets were playing. Or just do what I do. See what Morris thinks and then take the opposing view. The guy is amazing. He is never, and I mean never, right.
Jack2894 Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 12:21 PM
Every pundit on TH who made a prediction got it wrong. Almost every TH poster predicted a Romney win.

How could such a large group be so uniformly mistaken? That's not a rhetorical question. What mechanism led to an almost 100% failure rate? Unless conservatives can figure that out, they will never win another presidential election.
Science Avenger Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 2:35 PM
I'll tell you why. It's because they are caught in an epistemic trap. They only consider information and opinions from other conseravatives valid. Anything from anyone else is dismissed out of hand because they are "liberals" or whatever label they are fond of. They've cut themselves off from any corrective mechanism. It's the exact same thing cult leaders do - cut your flock off from dissenting opinoins, and you can make them believe almost anything, that there is a spaceship behind the Hale-bop comet, or that running an anti-gay, anti-immigrent, anti-science, anti-abortion-even-in-rape-cases, cut-taxes-and-hope candidate could result in victory in 2012.

And they are still doing it. I've been watching Fox all morning, and all...
Science Avenger Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 2:36 PM
I've been watching Fox all morning, and all they talk about is marketing and externalities. No consideration whatsoever that the basic message is flawed. If they keep that up through 2016, they'll get creamed even worse.
Jack2894 Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 2:44 PM
A nice explication of the process. I have written often that conservatives must confront the obvious racism that finds a comfortable home in their party or the demographic shift will keep them on the sidelines for decades.
scrow Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 7:41 PM
And yet 49% of the American population voted for Romney. How does that indicate that the basic message is flawed?
ScienceOrMagic Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 11:33 PM
Conservatives had to continuously say he was winning/had a chance of winning in order to ensure conservatives came out to vote. Also by implying and stating the polls were biased, they now can claim the election may have been rigged or whatever conspiracy riles up the readership. So they keep coming back and clicking and town hall gets their page views and advertising dollars.

In the last week or so, an intense kerfuffle broke out over the poll-prognosticator Nate Silver and his blog at the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight. Silver, a statistician, has been predicting a decisive Obama victory for a very long time, based on his very complicated statistical model, which very, very few of his fans or detractors understand.

On any given day, Silver might have announced that -- given the new polling data -- "the model" was now finding that the president had an 86.3 percent chance of winning. Not 86.4 percent, you fools. Not 86.1 percent, you Philistines. But 86.3 percent,...