The bad news? Pew's partisan split is R+1 (R+3 among likelies), which seems a few shades too optimistic for the GOP. The good news? The media suddenly cares about partisan breakdowns in public opinion surveys. After weeks of mocking conservatives as tinfoil-hat-wearing paranoiacs for wondering if polls with D+8 samples were all that predictive in the 2012 cycle, every member of the Beltway smart set -- from NBC to WaPo -- is eager to share an opinion about the likelihood of a partisan over-samples. The difference? Back then, it made Obama look stronger than he actually was. Totally...
He may get a high percentage of the black vote, but there won't be nearly as many.
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