I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.
When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let's take a look at why.
US Manufacturing PMI
Markit reports PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months
- PMI lowest since July 2011, suggesting slower rate of manufacturing expansion
- Rate of output growth broadly unchanged
- New orders rise at weakest pace in four months
- Input costs fall for first time in...