12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly)

12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly)

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.

When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let's take a look at why.

US Manufacturing PMI

Markit reports PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months

Key points:

• PMI lowest since July 2011, suggesting slower rate of manufacturing expansion
• Rate of output growth broadly unchanged
• New orders rise at weakest pace in four months
• Input costs fall for first time in...