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New Jobless Claims: Outliers, Volatility, Incompetence and Incentives

David4 Wrote: Nov 18, 2012 6:47 PM
First problem was that California botched the reporting of two weeks worth of unemployment numbers. Second problem was that when California reported two weeks worth of data on October 13th there was insufficient information in the data to permit Political Calculation to correct the two sets of data to their true values.

The United States would appear to have entered a new trend for new jobless claims, one characterized by outliers and volatility. Our chart below showing the residual distribution of the number of new jobless claims filed each week shows just how far off from normal things have become since 22 September 2012, which we're marking as the end of the previous trend.

In fact, the data is so volatile right now that we're not able to accurately determine what the real trend in new jobless claims might be. For that, we'll need anywhere from six...

Related Tags: incompetence jobless