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Pollsters May Have Fatal Flaw in Obama Romney Numbers

Daniel30 Wrote: Aug 12, 2012 7:58 AM

Here is how I do the polling for my own gut feelings. Look around you to the people you have known for several years. This is not a scientific poll. Obviously the people you know don't well represent the national composition, no individual locality does. But on the other hand such a poor cross-section of people do often reflect shifts in political moods. In my region it is definitely a shift against Obama. No one is enthusiastic about Romney, but a lot of people that wanted to give Obama a chance in 2008 don't want him for another presidency. I'm in the reddest of states, Obama didn't carry a county in my state. But the shift is what matters and that seems significant in 2012.

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Mark1369 Wrote: Aug 26, 2012 5:03 PM

I see the same thing with people I know especially the people that have been life long democrats. The real dyed in the wool liberals haven't changed but the solid working class democrats are unwilling to vote for Obama again. That doesn't mean they will vote for Romney as they may not vote this election. Between the reasons given in this post along with the consistent over polling of democrats by 9-10% shows Romney with a 5-12% lead right now.

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plumbrite Wrote: Aug 29, 2012 4:18 PM

for that reason the dems need to get out and vote for romney

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Charles SWVA Wrote: Sep 03, 2012 9:13 AM

Right on plumbrite. I encourage every Democrat to show up at the polls Nov 7.

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Pollsters May Have Fatal Flaw in Obama Romney Numbers

As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively, it dawned on me, looking at the various "swing state" surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead, when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.

When surveys are conducted, the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be "weighted" or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other...

Related Tags: Campaigns and Elections 2012 Election Mitt Romney Obama Barack Obama Polls