In response to:

The Particulars of Polls

daddy o Wrote: Oct 01, 2012 11:09 AM
I think you miss the point about exit polls being most inaccurate when the interviewers were female graduate students. Think about this: The demographics where the Democrats ran strongest, besides the African American vote were the youth vote, and the single female vote. In addition the academic community tends to favor Democrats as well, so young female graduate students would be more likely than almost any other group to skew results towards the object of their own political leanings, whether consciously or unconsciously.
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters.

First, some points about the limits of polls. Random sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent, and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot such an...