In response to:

Introducing The New Polling Firm of Madoff, Marist, Quinnipiac and Ponzi

colin64 Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 6:05 PM
The Polls are not 100% accurate but they do point in the right direction and Romney is clearly behind ...I wish it wasn't so but it is The only real poll to watch is over at INTRADE where folks risk their hard earned cash to predict an election result and it does tend to concentrate the mind wonderfully ......OBAMA 80% ...Romney 20% ....meaning that realistically Romney has about a 20% chance of winning this election
Rondoman Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 9:21 PM
Stick with Rasmussen. That is the only poll that is not worshiping Obama.
Carl469 Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 8:17 PM
Romney needs to go racial. Show TV ads showing black flash mobs entering a retail store, single file by the dozens, and I guarantee you Romney's stock would go up.
ReddestNeck Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 10:50 PM
He won't, though, as this would essentially add more funds to the now practically maxed out race card.
Carl469 Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 8:17 PM
Romney needs to go racial. Show TV ads showing black flash mobs entering a retail store, single file by the dozens, and I guarantee you Romney's stock would go up.
Carl469 Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 8:17 PM
Romney needs to go racial. Show TV ads showing black flash mobs entering a retail store, single file by the dozens, and I guarantee you Romney's stock would go up.
Carl469 Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 8:17 PM
Romney needs to go racial. Show TV ads showing black flash mobs entering a retail store, single file by the dozens, and I guarantee you Romney's stock would go up.
amackley Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 6:27 PM
I used to think Intrade was a better indicator, precisely for the same reason. However, I watched Intrade closely during all of the primary season. What happened was very wide swings that lagged behind the news by about 6 to 12 hours. Generally, within about a 12 hour period before the election, Intrade got pretty close to the actual outcome. Before that, it was sometimes right, sometimes wrong.

So, I will start watching Intrade sometime around November 4th. I will watch it closely on November 6th, throughout the day. It will end up pretty accurate.

If I were a betting man, and I'm not, I would be betting pretty heavy on Romney right now. The odds of a big win are much greater than a great loss.
ReddestNeck Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 10:49 PM
And there is always the self-feeding factor, as it becomes more and more famous. People will "donate" to it. Towards the end, more Republicans will. The game of chicken will end only when the result is all but obvious.
modernmover Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 9:18 PM
In the grand scheme of things, remember the difference in points between McCain and Obama in 2008. Now, do you think that anyone who voted for McCain will now vote for Obama? None. Who voted for Obama that will vote for Romney. Lots. That will not bother voting at all because they didn't get their Obama dollars? Huge. That was a one time trick played by the Democrats on blacks. Won't work again.
ReddestNeck Wrote: Sep 29, 2012 10:39 PM
Not just on blacks but on guilt-tripping whites. There's still a little of that old spell hanging around, which makes it slow to show Obama the door. But the door he will be shown.

After a few weeks spent tracking down and questioning pollsters and the reporters of polls, I can assure the reader that pollsters are the modern-day alchemists. They promise to turn numbers into predictive gold. We'd all like to believe these magical powers exist, but we shouldn't. The pollsters of 2012 just don't know who is going to win in November any more than did the pollsters of 1980 know that Ronald Reagan was headed towards a landslide in that late-breaking year.

I'd like to believe Scott Rasmussen that the race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama is tied. Democrats...