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The Reliability of Polls - and Polling Experts

Christ_Not_Conservatism Wrote: Oct 29, 2012 11:09 PM

If Nate Silver had been doing predictions in 1980, he probably would have given Carter about the same odds of winning re-election. I vaguely remember 1980 (I was quite young then, but I followed this stuff). I recall it being SO close one week ahead of the election. Election day was a shock - to everyone. State after state after state began to fall into the Reagan column. After the polls closed on the East Coast, the election was over. Carter conceded before 7pm on the west coast. I will be mildly shocked this time if Obama wins. If he wins, it will be very close. I will not be shocked at all to see Romney win in a landslide. That's just how much this feels like 1980.

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Dave M Wrote: Oct 29, 2012 11:14 PM

The polls said it was close. It never really was.

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The Reliability of Polls - and Polling Experts

There has been just about one constant up for discussion in an electoral season filled with tumultuous polling: Nate Silver.

Nate Silver is the statistician and poll-watching guru who rose to prominence in 2008 by developing a poll aggregation model that correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in that year's presidential contest. He has since been hired by the New York Times and gained more prominence with his up-to-the-minute analysis on new polls and the state of the presidential race.

Conservatives have attacked Silver relentlessly for his model that predicts that President Obama with a 70%+ chance to win...

Related Tags: Sports 2012 Election Mitt Romney Barack Obama Football Nate Silver