In response to:

Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily

Bruce2397 Wrote: Nov 05, 2012 8:26 AM
Nate Silver is a statistician, not an idiot. In 2008 he correctly called the race in 49 out of 50 states (whether for McCain or Obama), only missing Indiana, which he called for McCain but went to Obama. He also correctly predicted all 35 Senate races that year. He is very clean and transparent about his methodology, and it doesn't rely on any of Mr. Barone's feelings.
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's job report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents -- voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans -- break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32...