1 - 4
Intrade is accurate if you look at the final prediction 30 seconds before the actual outcome. If you look at Intrade 30 days out it has no predictive value whatsoever.
Intrade is a joke. Question, what odds did Intrade give Ryan on being the VP pick a month before he was chosen? Close to zero I believe. Intrade had it as a lock the Supreme Court would overturn Obamacare. The thing you need to understand about Intrade is that people are not betting on the actual outcome, they are betting on the public perception at that moment. So basically Intrade goes up and down with the latest poll - expecting that the next sucker who comes along will also believe that poll. Intrade is amusing but it's predictive value is zero.
Some may argue that the fake MSM polling sways the early voter. Not so much. Anyone voting before the debates is likely an extreme partisan anyway. Obama could murder puppies on stage and still have their vote.
HISTORICAL EFFECT OF MSM BIASING POLLS: None, or it may actually hurt them. The best place to look at MSM biasing of polling is the NYTimes polling of the Reagan/Carter race. Prior to the election, NYTimes had Carter ahead in most battleground states. Result, he was beaten, badly. So does the biasing of MSM polling have a "self-fulfilling prophecy" effect? Apparently not. As a matter of fact, due to the MSM credibility boomerang, it may actually hurt the Democrats chances by: - pissing off Republicans and Independents. - making Democrats overconfident. No one has every won the White House without taking over 50% of the Independent vote.
1 - 4