In response to:

Lies, Darned Lies, and Polls

amperro Wrote: Nov 03, 2012 11:34 PM
"If Intrade is as accurate in 2012 as it was in 2004, the final outcome in the Electoral College will be Obama 281, Romney 257." So in other words, Obama will win. This is a reason to be hopeful?????

How accurate are the polls? Is there one gold standard out there? Are they all biased and skewed tools of partisan media?

For my money, the most reliable polling data is the Real Clear Politics polling average.

In 2008, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted Barack Obama to defeat John McCain by 7.6 points. Obama won by 7.3 points. In 2004, the final Real Clear Politics polling average predicted George W. Bush to defeat John Kerry by 1.5 points. Bush won the election by 1.5 points.

That’s called nailing it.

Worth noting is which...