In response to:

I'm Even More Confident That Mitt Will Win

amperro Wrote: Nov 02, 2012 12:12 AM
I totally want to see Obama lose. Unfortunately, Intrade holds Obama with a 65% chance of winning. Intrade almost ALWAYS calls it correctly. John Stossel himself did a? segment on Intrade. Intrade called it in 2008. Why will Intrade be wrong now?
sshearon Wrote: Nov 02, 2012 9:01 AM
I wouldn't put much stock in a European gambling site. There is a lot of money for them to make if Romney wins, don't forget.

Paraphrasing an old saying: "To be successful watch what people do and do the opposite."
Anonymous10152 Wrote: Nov 02, 2012 1:18 AM
"Intrade almost ALWAYS calls it correctly"

The key word here is ALMOST....

Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012 (And It’s Been Right Since 1980)
ConcealedCarry Wrote: Nov 02, 2012 1:05 AM
"Why will Intrade be wrong now?"

Maybe they won't be. Intrade is a like a betting site. Evidently most of the "money" being bet is on Obama to win. That kind of model is obviously not foolproof and could even be influenced by manipulation.

We'll see on November 7th.
I want to give you an updated list of reasons I believe that Mitt Romney will win the election Tuesday. So much information, so much confusion, so much uncertainty. But I don't think it's so complex as it seems.

In 2008, a perfect storm developed for Barack Obama: an economic crisis, which was effectively, though unfairly, blamed on Republicans; war fatigue, which had been stoked by six years of Democratic anti-Bush propaganda; a messianic illusion personified in Obama, who was promising incomprehensibly wonderful yet undefined change and utopian-level bipartisanship; and a Republican opponent who all but forfeited the election to Obama...