After a few weeks spent tracking down and questioning pollsters and the reporters of polls, I can assure the reader that pollsters are the modern-day alchemists. They promise to turn numbers into predictive gold. We'd all like to believe these magical powers exist, but we shouldn't. The pollsters of 2012 just don't know who is going to win in November any more than did the pollsters of 1980 know that Ronald Reagan was headed towards a landslide in that late-breaking year.
When multiple organizations (including Fox News!) call randomly selected voters, and in the vast majority of polls the number of people who assert they are Democrats goes up slightly, that's not magic, it's data. Actually, the biggest change in the data is not the increase in the number of Democrats, but rather the sharply shrinking number of voters who wish to self-identify as Republicans. What does it say about you and your movement that you need to resort to conspiracy theories rather than deal with reality?
- Quotes of the day Allahpundit 1 hour ago
- Former loathsome nanny-state mayor confuses blogger with second awesome move this summer Mary Katharine Ham 1 hour ago
- Video: Army Medal of Honor recipient breaks gavel at New York Stock Exchange Mary Katharine Ham 2 hours ago
- Senate analysis: What does “success” look like for the GOP in 2014? Guy Benson 3 hours ago
- Could a Republican president gut ObamaCare without action from Congress or the Supreme Court? Allahpundit 3 hours ago
- Rubio: Immigration reform won’t happen for another 10 years unless border security comes first Allahpundit 4 hours ago