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Pollsters May Have Fatal Flaw in Obama Romney Numbers

Alan437 Wrote: Aug 27, 2012 7:02 AM
Statistics are like a bikini, what they reveal is interesting, but what they hide is critical...
As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively, it dawned on me, looking at the various "swing state" surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead, when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.

When surveys are conducted, the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be "weighted" or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other...