In response to:

The GDP Multiplier for QE

Ahenobarbus Wrote: Jul 08, 2013 6:20 PM
More Keynesian analysis. Is there no end to it? The multiple, overlapping confusions that are required to believe all of this are staggering. The Keynesian theory that recommends debasing the currency in order to "fix" unemployment is based on the assumption that workers leave the workforce if their wages fall below a certain level in terms of money but not if they fall below that same level in purchasing power. And more employment means less saving and more consumption. Consumption is good, and saving is bad, because Keynes essentially saw all saving as hoarding -- that none of the money would be deposited in an account where it could be loaned out and used in the economy. That all of this was effectively disproven by the "stagflation" -- the rising inflation AND unemployment of the 1970s -- is apparently in the process of being entirely forgotten. Worse, Keynes's theories of employment and money were never substantiated or proven by Keynes. He simply declared them to be true, and developed a series of impressive looking yet meaningless equations around them. But the central fallacy of analysis such as the above is much the same as one of Keynes's worst weaknesses. It contemplates ONLY the QE (debasement of the currency) and completely ignores ALL OTHER VARIABLES in the economy. Of course, if Fed policy is all you're looking at, it is easy to assume that what happens between time A and time B is the result of Fed policy, but that is entirely superficial and blinkered thinking.
george33 Wrote: Jul 08, 2013 8:56 PM
Good comments. Keynes' theories, no matter how discredited or how many times they fail, will never be allowed to die - because they fit perfectly into the socialist ideals. Big government nanny state fixing all ills by throwing money at them.

After adding an update to our original post for predicting GDP for the U.S. in the first quarter of 2013 that was based on earlier estimates of the amounts of government spending, tax hikes and quantitative easing taking place in the quarter, we thought the results based upon more final estimates of these quantities deserved a post in their own right.

Here are the values that need to be entered into the tool below to coincide with the actual levels of government spending cuts, expected tax increases and the Fed's quantitative easing that took place in the...