In response to:
I'm not a numbers guy, but I can almost guarantee you that somewhere there is a time-honored revenue model, used by all of the media, that says:
"To maximize advertising revenues from both parties, polls should reflect no more than a one percent difference between candidates."
Say, has anyone mentioned this race looks pretty close lately? Oh, that's right -- everyone has. CNN's last national poll before Judgment Day shows the race tied at 49, with a D+11 partisan sample. This assumes Democrats will improve upon their extraordinary 2008 turnout by four percentage points. There's a word for this. It's "ludicrous." CNN's previous national poll gave Obama a three-point lead, so it suggests the GOP nominee is gaining steam. In light of the mind-blowing sample, how is the race even close, let alone tied?
(1) Independent voters are...
Also, I think the Dems and the Ministry of Truth have a vested interest in getting the leftist sheep out to vote for the downticket, so they WANT it to appear close.
I don't think anyone - not even Nate Silver - is convinced at this point.