In response to:

House Democrats Head for a Thumping at the Polls

/ Wrote: Jul 29, 2010 1:20 PM
"I want to underscore the significance of some other information in the survey—namely, where voters identify themselves in relation to the parties. On the whole, 58 percent of voters see Democrats as liberal or very liberal, while 56 percent see Republicans as conservative or very conservative; no surprise there. But voters now place themselves much closer to the Republican Party than to the Democratic Party on this left-right continuum. Indeed, the ideological gap between the Democratic Party and the mean voter is about three times as large as the separation between that voter and the Republican Party. And, startlingly, the electorate places itself a bit closer to the Tea Party movement (which is well to the right of the Republican...

Democratic spin doctors have set out how their side is going to hold onto a majority in the House. They'll capture four at-risk Republican seats, hold half of the next 30 or so Democratic at-risk seats, and avoid significant losses on target seats lower on the list.

That's one plausible scenario. The shift of opinion away from Democrats so evident in the polls could turn out to be illusory. The widely held assumption that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than Democrats could prove wrong.

Democratic candidates do indeed have a money advantage in many close races, and their...

Friday, June 01 | 10:57 AM ET
Friday, June 01 | 10:57 AM ET
Friday, June 01 | 10:57 AM ET
Friday, June 01 | 10:57 AM ET