For Ron Paul, maybe two polls makes a trend in Iowa.

Twice this week, a survey shows Paul on the rise and in second place among likely Iowa Caucusgoers, finishing within the margin of error with poll leader Herman Cain.

The Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG survey of 377 Iowa Republicans out today had Cain at 25 percent and Paul at 20 percent. Bloomberg’s Iowa poll out Tuesday had Cain at 20 percent and Paul at 19 percent.

Paul has been the first choice among at least 10 percent of Iowa Republicans since this summer, and has been between 10 and 12 percent since October.

In today’s survey, Mitt Romney came in third with 16 percent; Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry were tied for fourth with 8 percent.

There’s no sign yet of Newt Gingrich’s surge in this poll; he’s tied at 5 percent with Rick Santorum. That might be the timing of the survey: today’s was conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 13, spanning the first two weeks of the Herman Cain sexual harassment scandal, which broke Oct. 30. Bloomberg’s survey covered a narrower window of time from Nov. 10 through Nov. 12, and had Gingrich in fourth place with 17 percent.

Huntsman had 0 percent in today’s poll. Of those surveyed, 8 percent said they didn’t know who’d they’d pick in the Jan. 3 caucuses, and 6 percent picked “other.”

In 2008, Paul finished fifth among Iowa caucusgoers with 10 percent.